Gregg:

Correct.  The problem with exponential/transcendental/infinity  
"arguments" is that they play on people's desire for a "final" cause  
to look forward to (someday) as the ultimate escape -- although, to be  
sure, few involved would be able to describe what Aristotle meant by  
that and why it is always accompanied by the other three causes (which  
"limits" all this to natural outcomes, not "infinite" ones) . . . <g>

This is why so many attracted to this approach are "evangelicals" and  
why some of them even commit suicide to get to their "final reward" --  
like suicide-bombers (remembering that Islam began as an  
"implementation" of the Book of Revelation) and cultists like the  
Nike-wearing Hale-Boppers &c.  The Protestant Reformation was largely  
dedicated to the 2nd Coming and it still has enormous influence --  
particularly in the English and German-speaking worlds.  Arguably the  
Third Reich was a "paganized" version of the Christian endtimes, for  
instance.

I first heard of Ray Kurzweil when he was being promoted by George  
Gilder in his "Microcosm" (which I helped with the final edit.)   
George is a *deep* evangelical (or "born-again"), as is Kevin Kelly --  
with whom he bonded back in the 90s at Wired magazine.  I had my  
little chat with Ray after he spoke at one of George's "Telecosm"  
conferences.

https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.amazon.com_Microcosm-2DQuantum-2DRevolution-2DEconomics-2DTechnology_dp_067170592X&d=DwIBaQ&c=eLbWYnpnzycBCgmb7vCI4uqNEB9RSjOdn_5nBEmmeq0&r=HPo1IXYDhKClogP-UOpybo6Cfxxz-jIYBgjO2gOz4-A&m=nbwcjayT4w9hKkrtDFGGDhe9348lpZbYGisOPOoaoXk&s=qArea0n9gZRg1MsVKwZQJ-f1wMmEJLKdibG8f6lCZso&e=

To be sure, some of these "evangelicals" are also technologists and  
for them the "2nd Coming" (which will finally clear up "corruption" on  
Earth) takes the form of the Singularity (to come, not the "Big Bang")  
that Kurzweil is famous for promoting.  Ultimately, their plans --  
sometimes disguised as "Colonies on Mars" &c -- mean getting rid of  
humanity.  We call these people the "Digital Sphere" to distinguish  
them from the East and the West -- both of which want to keep the  
humans.

My concern is that as you elaborate your "5th Joint Point" there will  
be a tendency to attract these types, who will be confused that your  
"chart" points to an Teilhardian "Omega Point" or some such *finality*  
and not just another "dimension of complexity" (with an associated  
*new* mentality for humans, this time shaped by digital memory and not  
illusions.)

Alas, as good a song as this was (for my generation), we are *not*  
getting back to the Garden (and, no, we are not "golden" or, in any  
meaningful sense, even "stardust") . . . <g>

https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.youtube.com_watch-3Fv-3D3aOGnVKWbwc&d=DwIBaQ&c=eLbWYnpnzycBCgmb7vCI4uqNEB9RSjOdn_5nBEmmeq0&r=HPo1IXYDhKClogP-UOpybo6Cfxxz-jIYBgjO2gOz4-A&m=nbwcjayT4w9hKkrtDFGGDhe9348lpZbYGisOPOoaoXk&s=vsHt26trxhS1oEiRhBej1X-sZRIFm8tBfrqA1xycHic&e=

Mark

P.S. My recommendation for those trying to find a 60s anthem for what  
we're going through now would be Buffalo Springfield's (two of whom  
became CSNY and covered Joni) 1967 "For What It's Worth . . . "

https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.youtube.com_watch-3Fv-3Dgp5JCrSXkJY&d=DwIBaQ&c=eLbWYnpnzycBCgmb7vCI4uqNEB9RSjOdn_5nBEmmeq0&r=HPo1IXYDhKClogP-UOpybo6Cfxxz-jIYBgjO2gOz4-A&m=nbwcjayT4w9hKkrtDFGGDhe9348lpZbYGisOPOoaoXk&s=SHnYnxJdljpW-S6_EP7MNSxDGhJZCKTJIeUaPrOsnyQ&e=

Quoting "Henriques, Gregg - henriqgx" <[log in to unmask]>:

> Mark,
>
> You are correct that here is a lot of specificity that needs to be  
> articulated on what the curve means. And you are right that it is  
> not true exponential growth curve. Indeed, when you zoom in on it,  
> it is not, straight exponential growth curve at all. (Actually, if  
> you look again at the powerpoint of Chaisson's  
> work<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.amazon.com_Cosmic-2DEvolution-2DRise-2DComplexity-2DNature_dp_0674009878&d=DwIBaQ&c=eLbWYnpnzycBCgmb7vCI4uqNEB9RSjOdn_5nBEmmeq0&r=HPo1IXYDhKClogP-UOpybo6Cfxxz-jIYBgjO2gOz4-A&m=nbwcjayT4w9hKkrtDFGGDhe9348lpZbYGisOPOoaoXk&s=CKYifCg5Sj8NOSPTLawxLC0_Cfq3AaeruNy5iKWM0vA&e=>, second graph underneath, you will see that point, although it is easy to overlook). If we zoom in on the changes, we see a graph more like this the following depiction (the last 500 years setting the stage for our current meta-cultural/5th joint point/Digital Life  
> revolution).
> [cid:image005.png@01D43E05.8DB51340]
>
> I think this is consistent with what the attached paper on S curves  
> was getting at, when it concluded that it hoped to help folks "to  
> see historical developments in terms of relatively quiet periods  
> separated by fairly radical transitions".
>
> Best,
> Gregg
> [cid:image006.png@01D43E05.8DB51340]
>
>
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