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November 2008

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Thu, 20 Nov 2008 22:08:39 -0500
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Some folks may be interested in the following text from pp. 16-17 of the
just-released report of the National Intelligence Council, titled Global
Trends 2025: A Transformed World.  There are many other passages in the
report with feminist implications, albeit less directly so.

The entire report can be downloaded at
http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html

Tom

Tom Digby
Professor of Philosophy
Springfield College
263 Alden Street
Springfield, MA 01109

"Education is not the filling of a pail but the lighting of a fire."
--William Butler Yeats
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Women as Agents of Geopolitical Change

Economic and political empowerment of women could transform the global
landscape over the next 20 years. This trend already is evident in the area
of economics: The explosion in global economic productivity in recent years
has been driven as much by fostering human resources—particularly through
improvements in health, education, and employment opportunities for women
and girls—as by technological advances.

-- The predominance of women in Southeast Asia’s export manufacturing
sector is a likely key driver of that region’s economic success; women
agricultural workers account for half the world’s food production—even
without reliable access to land, credit, equipment, and markets.

-- Over the next 20 years the increased entry and retention of women in the
workplace may continue to mitigate the economic impacts of global aging.

Women in much of Asia and Latin America are achieving higher levels of
education than men, a trend that is particularly significant in a human
capital-intensive global economy.

-- Demographic data indicate a significant correlation between a higher
level of female literacy and more robust GDP growth within a region (e.g.,
the Americas, Europe, and East Asia). Conversely, those regions with the
lowest female literacy rates (southern and western Asia; the Arab world;
and Sub-Saharan Africa) are the poorest in the world.

-- Improved educational opportunities for girls and women also are a
contributing factor to falling birth rates worldwide—and by extension
better maternal health. The long-term implications of this trend likely
include fewer orphans, less malnutrition, more children in
school, and other contributions to societal stability.

Although data on women’s political involvement are less conclusive than
those regarding economic participation, political empowerment of women
appears to change governmental priorities. Examples as disparate as Sweden
and Rwanda indicate that countries with relatively large numbers of
politically active women place greater importance on societal issues such
as healthcare, the environment, and economic development. If this trend
continues over the next 15-20 years, as is likely, an increasing number of
countries could favor social programs over military ones. Better governance
also could be a spinoff benefit, as a high number of women in parliament or
senior government positions correlates with lower corruption.

Nowhere is the role of women potentially more important for geopolitical
change than in the Muslim World. Muslim women do far better assimilating in
Europe than their male relatives, partly because they flourish in the
educational system, which facilitates their entry into jobs in information
or service industries. Sharply declining fertility rates among Muslims in
Europe demonstrate this willingness to accept jobs outside the home and a
growing refusal to conform to traditional norms. In the short term, the
decline of traditional Muslim family structures may help explain the
openness of many young Muslim men to radical Islamic messages. However, in
rearing future generations, women might help show the way to greater social
assimilation and reduce the likelihood of religious extremism. The impact
of growing numbers of women in the workplace may also have an impact
outside Europe. The modernizing countries of the Islamic Mediterranean have
close ties to Europe, to which these countries have sent many migrants.
Migrants return to visit or resettle and bring with them new ideas and
expectations. These Islamic countries also receive foreign influences from
European mass media, through satellite dishes and the Internet.

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