Thanks, Gregg. I'm going to upload for you all 11 points on COVID that will certainly be food for thought.

As far as I can tell, the data are off quite a bit.  As we are, I believe, a collection of realists. I should point out that

(1) CDC decided to count all who die with PCR positive COVID tests as "died from", failing to distinguish "died from" from "died with".  They have
in the past convolved "influenza" deaths with deaths from other respiratory viruses (RSV, SV and, ironically, coronavirus). Only about 9% of 
"flu deaths" from 2014-2019 were confirmed to involve influenza virus. Dr. Biix announced this in March.
(2) FDA did not require empirical estimates of false positives in PCR tests for Emergency Use Authorization.  Even more recently, they had all test
makers characterizing sensitivity, but not specificity.  I have written to FDA wondering why.
(3) Independent studies are finding high false positive rates of PCR tests (e.g., Dr. Sin Hang Lee, Millford, CT).
(4) Coupled (1) with the reality that the PCR tests have false positives in the field use, mass testing (screening) will find more false positives
in raw numbers than true positives.  This is true for cases and deaths.  It's the reason we do not all get CT scans for cancer every year - 
too many infections due to biopsies of FPs. There is no rule (that exists or that is in use) telling us when, as pandemic progresses, it is ethical to switch from symptom-based testing to mass testing (I've worked that out mathematically and am trying to publish it).
(5) The safety of COVID19 medical care has increased dramatically; high death rates due to the use of ventilators are being replaced with low pressure high 02 protocols.
(6) Many deaths have involved a strange coagulopathy.  This condition is very simple to prevent with proper medicine.
(7) Only certain types of people (with pro-inflammatory, autoimmune-prone Th2 skewed immune systems) appear to be at risk.   Some think this may be genetic (lack of a particular initial "innate" immunity (mediated by interleukin-1):
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/scientists-discover-genetic-immunologic-underpinnings-some-cases-severe-covid-19
(8) Combine (1) with (7) and the fact that in 2019 people >70 have the same probability of dying in one year as the Infection Case Fatality Rate 
in COVID19, a large portion of deaths were likely due to "COVID19 exacerbating pre-existing conditions" (get and stay healthy, my friends!)
(9) Sweden did not lock down, and their # new cases has been near zero; thus, the elderly etc are now protected in Sweden.  While they have been criticized for higher number of deaths in the elderly, this was temporary because they appear to have achieved herd immunity; we have not; flattening the curve obviously extends the duration of the outbreak, and there are now many, many scholars, including MDs and public health scientists who say Sweden "got it right".
(10) I am editor-in-chief of a journal "Science, Public Health Policy & the Law" and I suggest a read of the case series by Dr. Brownstein and team, which I have attached.  Many studies are now showing protective value of Vitamin D (specifically D3).   I think it helps us fold our proteins properly, reducing endoplasmic reticulum stress (1/3 of our proteins require help folding in the lumen of the ER, and environmental toxins impair that process are increasingly abundant).
(11) The politicization of COVID19 and early mistakes in policy (IMHO) have had immeasurable costs to society including deaths of despair.

If you're into immunology, attached is a compressed file with some slides for a lecture I gave with .pdfs of publications relevant to most of the points of the talk.

Cheers,
JLW

 Immunology of COVID19.rar





On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 9:56 AM Henriques, Gregg - henriqgx <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

Hi Folks,

  I thought this was a useful summary of COVID that JMU University Health Center provided, so I am sharing it.

G

>>> 

Global cases now exceed 32 million. New global daily cases now average about 285,000. India continues to have the most new daily cases, averaging about 87,000.

The US and Brazil continue in 2nd and 3rd place. Other South American countries (Argentina, Columbia) and some European countries are also seeing significant numbers. France and Spain are seeing a greater surge now than they did in the spring. On the positive side, the death rate has been significantly lower in these countries. The US 7-day moving average for test positivity rate has decreased to 4.9%, but daily testing still remains only around 800,000. Testing volume in the US continues to lag. However, these data reflect PCR testing. Antigen testing is becoming more available and being used more. States are just now adding these tests to their data.

Nationally, total cases have now exceeded 7 million and are currently reported at 7,139,553. New daily cases continue to hover around 40,000. The average daily death rate is around 800. This is significantly lower than in April. Texas, California, and Florida remain as the top 3 states for new cases.

The Commonwealth reports a total of 143,492 cases and 3,113 deaths. The testing % positivity is currently at 5.3% which is a significant downward trend over the past 2 weeks.

The Central Shenandoah Health District has also seen a significant decline in the 7-day moving average for test positivity, dropping from 18.3% on 9/6 to 7.9%.

 

Locality

Current total cases

New cases over the past 9 days

Prior 5 day data on new cases

Harrisonburg

2564

518

233

Rockingham County

1403

199

90

Augusta County

472

38

28

Staunton

250

31

30

Waynesboro

257

9

14

Shenandoah County

804

13

9

Page County

389

13

10

At JMU we are seeing fewer positive test and fewer people reporting a positive test performed elsewhere. However, we are also seeing fewer people get tested and therefore our 7-day average test positivity remains around 17%. All cases occurring in employees have been a result of either non-JMU related exposure or employee to employee (rather than student to employee) exposure. The reports are that face mask use in the academic settings has been very good. This significantly accounts for a lack of transmission between student and faculty.

Vaccine development continues with new vaccines being developed and entering clinical trials. Two of the vaccines that are furthest along in development are m-RNA vaccines (Moderna and Pfizer). However, there is a very interesting and concerning logistic related to these vaccines-the cold chain storage required. These vaccines require storage at -94 degrees Fahrenheit (yes, minus 94). Transport would require storage in dry ice. These vaccines last 24 hours at refrigerated temperatures between 36.6-46.4 Fahrenheit. In contrast, vaccines under development by Sanofi and Novavax are stable for months at typical refrigerated temperatures.

Johnson & Johnson has a single dose vaccine entering phase 3 trials while Merck and Sanofi (both well-known and well-respected in vaccine development) have vaccines in development and entering clinical trials. An important factor is the corporate knowledge, infrastructure, and ability of these two companies to both vaccine development and large-scale production. They may be late in the game but they should not be counted out. This article covers some information about vaccines in trials and development.

It seems very unlikely there will be a single winning vaccine-at least in the beginning. Time will tell which vaccine approach seems to work best with the optimal immune response and duration.

As an aside, recently the head of the CDC (Robert Redfield) commented that mask wearing was likely to be more effective than any vaccine.  “I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against COVID than when I take a COVID vaccine,” Redfield said while testifying before the Senate Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services on expectations around the release of COVID-19 vaccines.  He was not indicating that vaccine are not likely to be effective but instead on the value of masks as a preventative measure. He may also have been forecasting the need for mask use even when vaccines are available.

Enjoy the beautiful weekend!

Andy Guertler

Andrew T. Guertler, MD

Medical Director

University Health Center

James Madison University

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james lyons-weiler, phd
Author, CEO, President, Scientist
Guest Contributor, Children's Health Defense 

Ebola: An Evolving Story (World Scientific, 2015)
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