Deepak:
I share your concern.
Our past 3-1/2+ years with the current administration seems to provide enough experience to at least suspect that nefarious acts may be afoot.
Past experience is a reasonably good suggestion of future behavior - usually.
Whether there is a coup in the works could become apparent.
Whether such a coup will be successful remains a possibility of (currently) uncertain likelihood.
Certainly, America’s presidential election system is complex and can be confusing enough to raise all sorts of suspicions.
As I understand the process, next comes certification of ballot results by each state, after which a President-Elect is officially recognized and announced.
Then the Electoral College electors perform their task.
Eventually, before January ends, a President-Elect is sworn in and becomes the President.
In the present situation, a coup that succeeds with 50 states participating seems unlikely - but the possibility, however ranked, is not “0"%.
For me, the likelihood seems small enough to be insignificant - and if attempted is more likely to be quashed.
Meanwhile, have faith in the system and the apparent ballot count (at this point).
So far, it seems that most citizens eschew the incumbent’s methodology and champion another route.
Which, of course, has little or no bearing on the substantial problems faced by the USA.
Best regards,
Waldemar
Waldemar A Schmidt, PhD, MD
(Perseveret et Percipiunt)
503.631.8044
Strive not to be a success, but rather to be of value. (A Einstein)
> On Nov 12, 2020, at 2:31 PM, Deepak Loomba <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
> CAUTION: This email originated from outside of JMU. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and know the content is safe.
> Joe & Gregg,
>
>
>
> One thing I desire submit is that you are missing the very nature of fraud (I have no intention on implying one here), fraud is one which at the face of it is undetectable and only on deep investigation is it exposed. Any fraud* detected & presented could force the hands of the Supreme court to annul the elections in the specified constituency. Putting the fate of Biden's victory in a balance.
>
>
>
> The asterisk with fraud denotes that it is not Dcrates who need to be fraudulent. Indeed, a person as sticky, slimy & cunning as Trump could get 200 bad votes casted by his people to raise the issue in case the State goes Pro-Dcrates.
>
>
>
> All he needs are few thousand 'bad' votes cast by his own people in advance to declare voting in 3-4 states yannulled.
>
>
>
>
>
> Truly yours
>
> DL
>
>
>
> On 11/13/2020 1:31 AM, Joseph Michalski wrote:
>> CAUTION: This email originated from outside of JMU. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and know the content is safe.
>> Hi again. Bradley wrote: "Dr. Michalski, You said: "The undeniable facts are that, at this point, more than 77 million voted for Biden and more than 72 million voted for Trump." This is certainly an incorrect statement. This is not a [sic] "undeniable fact," but a mere assertion, a justification. This is currently being contended in the court system, as a matter of (true) fact."
>>
>> I think this statement captures quite nicely the problem the U.S. currently confronts, especially as per Deepak's query and from what I've observed of the general discourse in various media outlets in the U.S. Let me explain why. (And it's not lost on me that I'm quite lucky to be in a position where I can spend hours and hours on the details that many people cannot, for whatever reasons!)
>>
>> First, I self-consciously go out of my way to be careful about any stats I may cite, because one of my central values in life is to try to be as honest, truthful, and accurate as I can be. That's especially vital in any scientific or academic work that I do, or when I'm in the classroom or discussing issues publicly. Second, not that it matters, but I'm a scientist with a PhD (and an ABD), and I teach basic & advanced statistics, at the undergrad and grad levels - and thus my reputation can and does suffer any time that I make false or misleading statements. Hence, I'm motivated to try to avoid such errors. But, of course, I'm not perfect either (see below). Third, I always convey my methodology when publishing scientific papers or if anyone wishes to know. So, in this case, since my "numbers" are being viewed as merely an assertion or "justification," and viewed as an "incorrect statement," let me explain my methodology.
>>
>> Before I wrote the contested statement, I reviewed three different websites -- all with different reputations in terms of political orientations and/or "fact-based" agencies not aligned with any media or political group -- and all committed to tracking the election results. I have been doing this for the election & documenting the evidence on a regular basis, since I'm using the information in part for a stats course I'm teaching in January. Thus what I do typically (as in this instance) when reporting any stats in a peer-reviewed paper or even just a public discussion, is to consult multiple sources. This is what's referred to as a form of "triangulation." Now, it's true that I'm not there "in person" counting the votes personally, but I don't think anyone would believe me or my numbers even if I were! So, instead, I evaluate the quality of different sources, review the data, and offer statements usually based on the consensus. If there's a huge discrepancy, then I'll report that as well. Unfortunately, I failed to report my methodology prior to this email. My apologies. In this case, there's a consensus across the agencies I consulted, even if they differ slightly in terms of the last 3-4 digits (i.e, hundreds or thousands of votes). And what did I find?
>>
>> Each source reported that more than well over 77,600,000 votes had been cast for Biden and well over 72,400,000 votes had been cast for Trump (again, with slight variations). Thus, I allowed for possible error by offering lower thresholds. In short, allowing for possible error, my statement would only be factually incorrect if the totals calculated by three independent sources were off in overestimating by more than 600,000 votes for Biden and/or that the totals were off in overestimating by more than 400,000 votes for Trump. And, of course, many more votes are still being counted.
>>
>> While we do not get the numbers exactly right on just about anything we measure in the social world (we even have some error in reporting homicide rates, for well-known reasons), we nevertheless arrive at well-established consensuses across a range of issues within certain generous parameters. Allowing for the possibility of errors of a magnitude never before encountered in U.S. election tabulations (i.e., where the vote totals a week after the election are upwards of a half million votes or more in error as assigned to the various candidates), I'm left wondering what else I could do to responsibly offer an "undeniable fact" about voting results that's accurate and hopefully somewhat helpful.
>>
>> By your logic, I could have said "The undeniable facts are that, at this point, more than 10 people voted for Biden and more than 10 people voted for Trump," and one could still argue that it's "certainly an incorrect statement" -- because the counts are being disputed in court. BTW, I agree 100% with your assertion that the vote totals are "currently being contended in the court system, as a matter of (true) fact."
>>
>> And this whole discourse reveals for me precisely why I have seriously considered giving up my life as a university educator or even trying to move the needle on any issue. I've had to spend a half hour alone trying to clarify and "justify" one statistical statement that's about as close to a "fact" as best have at our disposal to have any kind of a discussion. If I tell you the current level of CO2 in the air in London, Ontario, measured in parts per million, you could argue that point as well by questioning my methodology, measurement instruments, and so on. So, if I were asked, I'd offer the most "conservative" estimate possible and/or offer error margins and statistical probabilities. But if someone already doubts my claims or assertions or justifications even in a community committed to making the most honest & truthful statements we can, then there's nothing I can do. I would rather just "shut up and sing." Imagine if I tried making any "factual statement" to anyone, anywhere. Why would or should they believe me?
>>
>> So, if it's any consolation, Bradley & anyone else who doesn't trust my numbers or assertions, then I will concede that I am wrong: It is NOT an "undeniable fact" that Biden has received more than 77 million votes and Trump has received more than 72 million votes. Many people can and perhaps do dispute such "facts." Indeed, I'm not aware than any undeniable "fact" exists anywhere in the social universe. Thanks for setting me straight. And, since I'm more Canadian these days in my orientation, let just say, "I'm sorry. I was wrong." I will, in the future, just keep my thoughts to myself rather than woefully or willfully mislead anyone. That's never my intention (but maybe that's just a justification on my part!).
>>
>> Peace, -joe
>>
>>
>> Dr. Joseph H. Michalski
>> Professor (and clearly a "loser")
>> King’s University College at Western University
>> 266 Epworth Avenue, DL-201
>> London, Ontario, Canada N6A 2M3
>> Tel: (519) 433-3491
>> Email: [log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>> ______________________
>> eiπ + 1 = 0
>>
>> From: tree of knowledge system discussion <[log in to unmask]> <mailto:[log in to unmask]> on behalf of Bradley H. Werrell, D.O. <[log in to unmask]> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>> Sent: Thursday, November 12, 2020 1:14 PM
>> To: [log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]> <[log in to unmask]> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>> Subject: Re: TOK Excellent Essay by Nick Jankel
>>
>> CAUTION: This email originated from outside of JMU. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and know the content is safe.
>> Dr. Michalski,
>>
>> You said: "The undeniable facts are that, at this point, more than 77 million voted for Biden and more than 72 million voted for Trump."
>>
>>
>> This is certainly an incorrect statement.
>>
>> This is not a "undeniable fact," but a mere assertion, a justification. This is currently being contended in the court system, as a matter of (true) fact.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Bradley H. Werrell, D.O. - This email is private and copyrighted by the author.
>>
>>
>> On Thursday, November 12, 2020, 10:06:33 AM MST, Joseph Michalski <[log in to unmask]> <mailto:[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>>
>>
>> CAUTION: This email originated from outside of JMU. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and know the content is safe.
>> Hi Deepak. Fully agreed: "Trump is a symptom, not the cause of what is happening to America."
>>
>> As to what exactly may be happening, I'll wager that nearly everyone on this list probably has given the matter at least causal consideration -- and likely has thought deeply about and perhaps studied these issues. Maybe some have even written blogs or articles or done podcasts, a la Gregg. A great many commentators and analysts from different fields are & have been writing thoughtful pieces on the degree of polarization in the U.S. The issues are too many to list, but some highlight: 1) regional differences; 2) demographic characteristics & how different group interests may align; 3) social media sources and forces; 4) the issues of the "isms" (e.g., "racism" and "classism"); 5) the "education gap"; 6) social mobility & the impact of globalization; 7) the issues of "confirmation bias," "echo chambers", and tribalism; and 8) personality types and who's more likely to support, for example, authoritarian leaders. That's just off the top of my head!
>>
>> The undeniable facts are that, at this point, more than 77 million voted for Biden and more than 72 million voted for Trump. For those who are interested in the demography of the election results, here's an interesting article from the Financial Times that breaks down voting % by a number of interesting characteristics. I'd imagine most informed people here could easily predict who was more likely to vote Trump or Biden, based on their demographic characteristics and based on the logic of JUST.
>>
>> https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.ft.com_content_69f3206f-2D37a7-2D4561-2Dbebf-2D5929e7df850d&d=DwIFaQ&c=eLbWYnpnzycBCgmb7vCI4uqNEB9RSjOdn_5nBEmmeq0&r=HPo1IXYDhKClogP-UOpybo6Cfxxz-jIYBgjO2gOz4-A&m=h69iEOnUnSyN1XYEf-XbVh_d6d6zepodXpV4pg-T124&s=8mEaB3h08fZFLGqMtaGIHtQ9aHBkmCxMmob9rgSdJSQ&e= <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.ft.com_content_69f3206f-2D37a7-2D4561-2Dbebf-2D5929e7df850d&d=DwMF-w&c=eLbWYnpnzycBCgmb7vCI4uqNEB9RSjOdn_5nBEmmeq0&r=HPo1IXYDhKClogP-UOpybo6Cfxxz-jIYBgjO2gOz4-A&m=PaZqr4a8UoiXkrPx1qAq9gZlmTp30wb0iWsiVwsUsbE&s=C-1pvytr7-FGtyEPFwluZetQ1xZzay63_Gb36XFtcrs&e=>
>>
>> Best regards, one and all, -Joe
>>
>> Dr. Joseph H. Michalski
>> Professor
>> King’s University College at Western University
>> 266 Epworth Avenue, DL-201
>> London, Ontario, Canada N6A 2M3
>> Tel: (519) 433-3491
>> Email: [log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>> ______________________
>> eiπ + 1 = 0
>>
>> From: tree of knowledge system discussion <[log in to unmask]> <mailto:[log in to unmask]> on behalf of Deepak Loomba <[log in to unmask]> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>> Sent: Thursday, November 12, 2020 11:30 AM
>> To: [log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]> <[log in to unmask]> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>> Subject: Re: TOK Excellent Essay by Nick Jankel
>>
>> CAUTION: This email originated from outside of JMU. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and know the content is safe.
>> Joe,
>> Thanks. These are indeed trying times.
>> But what leaves me confused is the fact that America chose him to power in 16 and almost chose him in 20.
>> So its high time that intellectuals, thought leaders and psychologists think about what's the matter with almost half the population of US rather than analyzing Trump. Trump is a symptom, not the cause of what is happening to America.
>> I am worried, because I love the country and its free spirit.
>>
>> TY
>> DL
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On 11/12/2020 8:58 PM, Joseph Michalski wrote:
>>> CAUTION: This email originated from outside of JMU. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and know the content is safe.
>>> Hi Deepak and TOK community members. First, please see Gregg's blog today for a TOK perspective. Second, I lived half my life in the U.S. and the 2nd half in Canada, and thus have both an "emic" and an "etic" perspective on the U.S. I would have said growing up that that would a "coup" would never be on the table in the U.S., having been taught that the U.S. represents the foremost beacon of democracy, etc., etc. But times have changed and, as per Gregg's article, we should be concerned if we're functioning politically at the level of a four-year-old. I'm not thinking a coup will happen, but I'll refrain from prognosticating and instead share a link with an excellent article from the New York Times that puts U.S. events in a bit of historical context. FYI:
>>>
>>> https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.nytimes.com_2020_11_11_world_europe_trump-2Dautocrats-2Ddictators.html-3FsearchResultPosition-3D3&d=DwIFaQ&c=eLbWYnpnzycBCgmb7vCI4uqNEB9RSjOdn_5nBEmmeq0&r=HPo1IXYDhKClogP-UOpybo6Cfxxz-jIYBgjO2gOz4-A&m=h69iEOnUnSyN1XYEf-XbVh_d6d6zepodXpV4pg-T124&s=R1NR6VjSwmlG6tCVgH5V0Ru8tWLUeToaiH7MUHnbMVs&e= <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.nytimes.com_2020_11_11_world_europe_trump-2Dautocrats-2Ddictators.html-3FsearchResultPosition-3D3&d=DwMF-w&c=eLbWYnpnzycBCgmb7vCI4uqNEB9RSjOdn_5nBEmmeq0&r=HPo1IXYDhKClogP-UOpybo6Cfxxz-jIYBgjO2gOz4-A&m=seu1pAEKKqHMd1MUYKZ69woggbXJP2eaT77NB5pgH_k&s=B3dNc3jBoYrflpy-Vl54FCZ96DSUePdLPtu4fJP7ZIc&e=>
>>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.nytimes.com_2020_11_11_world_europe_trump-2Dautocrats-2Ddictators.html-3FsearchResultPosition-3D3&d=DwMF-w&c=eLbWYnpnzycBCgmb7vCI4uqNEB9RSjOdn_5nBEmmeq0&r=HPo1IXYDhKClogP-UOpybo6Cfxxz-jIYBgjO2gOz4-A&m=seu1pAEKKqHMd1MUYKZ69woggbXJP2eaT77NB5pgH_k&s=B3dNc3jBoYrflpy-Vl54FCZ96DSUePdLPtu4fJP7ZIc&e=>
>>> Trump’s Post-Election Tactics Put Him in Unsavory Company <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.nytimes.com_2020_11_11_world_europe_trump-2Dautocrats-2Ddictators.html-3FsearchResultPosition-3D3&d=DwMF-w&c=eLbWYnpnzycBCgmb7vCI4uqNEB9RSjOdn_5nBEmmeq0&r=HPo1IXYDhKClogP-UOpybo6Cfxxz-jIYBgjO2gOz4-A&m=seu1pAEKKqHMd1MUYKZ69woggbXJP2eaT77NB5pgH_k&s=B3dNc3jBoYrflpy-Vl54FCZ96DSUePdLPtu4fJP7ZIc&e=>
>>> Denying defeat, claiming fraud and using government machinery to reverse election results are the time-honored tools of dictators.
>>> www.nytimes.com <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.nytimes.com&d=DwMD-w&c=eLbWYnpnzycBCgmb7vCI4uqNEB9RSjOdn_5nBEmmeq0&r=HPo1IXYDhKClogP-UOpybo6Cfxxz-jIYBgjO2gOz4-A&m=320nI9VZWemwt4NEN4VLycWKFB2MPRnpZyeFEcmlioE&s=xmSRBmfwWAvIjlnTbS22liBPDn5cfdysYCTeuKro5rA&e=>
>>> All the best, -Joe
>>>
>>> Dr. Joseph H. Michalski
>>> Professor
>>> King’s University College at Western University
>>> 266 Epworth Avenue, DL-201
>>> London, Ontario, Canada N6A 2M3
>>> Tel: (519) 433-3491
>>> Email: [log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>>> ______________________
>>> eiπ + 1 = 0
>>>
>>> From: tree of knowledge system discussion <[log in to unmask]> <mailto:[log in to unmask]> on behalf of Deepak Loomba <[log in to unmask]> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>>> Sent: Thursday, November 12, 2020 10:00 AM
>>> To: [log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]> <[log in to unmask]> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>>> Subject: Re: TOK Excellent Essay by Nick Jankel
>>>
>>> CAUTION: This email originated from outside of JMU. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and know the content is safe.
>>> Since I am far from action - in India. Can't resist but ask an unpleasant question - Could Trump organize a coup? Especially with the dramatic last moment changes in Pentagon; I am afraid, now all of us everywhere are worried about the US.
>>> TY
>>> DL
>>>
>>>
>>> On 11/12/2020 8:27 PM, Henriques, Gregg - henriqgx wrote:
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